PredictIt evolved from an academic research project into a fully CFTC-regulated prediction market platform in September 2025. Originally launched in 2014 by Victoria University of Wellington with strict $850 position limits, PredictIt won its CFTC lawsuit in July 2025 and received full regulatory approval as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) in September, raising limits to $3,500 per contract. This comprehensive review covers Predict It’s academic origins, current fee structure (10% profits + 5% withdrawal), platform features, and honest comparison with Polymarket and Kalshi.
Whether you’re interested in political prediction markets or seeking a research-focused platform, this guide provides everything needed to evaluate PredictIt for your trading strategy.
What Is PredictIt? Academic Origins Meet Regulation
PredictIt began as a nonprofit educational project of Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, in partnership with Aristotle Inc., designed to facilitate forecasting research. The platform’s academic mission shaped its original design: small position limits encouraged broad participation from researchers and casual traders rather than institutional players, transparent data supported academic studies on prediction market accuracy, and political focus aligned with university research interests in electoral forecasting.
Operating under a CFTC no-action letter from 2014-2024, PredictIt functioned in a regulatory gray area—legal but not fully approved. The original restrictions mirrored Iowa Electronic Markets (which received the first CFTC no-action letter): $850 maximum investment per question, 5,000 trader limit per market, and political event focus with some expansion to other categories.
The 2025 Transformation
July 2025: PredictIt won its lawsuit challenging the CFTC’s attempt to revoke its no-action letter. September 2025: CFTC granted PredictIt full regulatory approval as both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO)—the same status Kalshi holds. New limits: $3,500 per contract (up from $850), no trader cap per market (previously 5,000), and expanded market categories beyond politics.
This transformation positions PredictIt as a legitimate competitor to Kalshi and Polymarket rather than a limited academic platform. However, PredictIt retains its academic DNA with research partnerships, transparent historical data for studies, and educational mission focus.
Current Market Position
PredictIt processes approximately $500 million annually in volume—significantly smaller than Polymarket ($9B in 2024) and Kalshi ($3-4B estimated 2024) but larger than niche platforms. Political markets remain the core: presidential elections, primaries, Senate/House races, Supreme Court decisions, and policy outcomes dominate volume. Approximately 180 active markets as of late 2024 (versus Polymarket’s 1,200+ and Kalshi’s 3,500+).
How PredictIt Works
Sign Up & Verification
Create account at predictit.org with email and basic information. Complete identity verification (required by CFTC): provide name, address, date of birth, and SSN. Verification typically completes within hours. US residents only (previously had some international access but now restricted post-regulation).
Deposit Funds
Minimum deposit: $10. Deposit methods include credit/debit card (instant, small processing fee) and bank transfer (free, 1-3 days). All trading in USD—no crypto required.
Browse & Trade Markets
Markets organized by category: Politics (dominant), Economics, World, Science/Tech, and Entertainment. Each market shows current YES/NO prices, total volume, number of traders, and resolution date. Shares priced $0.01-$0.99; winning shares pay $1.00 at resolution.
Example trade: “Will Democrats control Senate after 2026 elections?” shows YES at $0.48. Buy 100 shares at $0.48 = $48 investment. If Democrats win, receive $100 (profit $52 before fees). If Republicans win, lose $48.
Resolution & Fees
Markets resolve based on objective sources (election results, official announcements, vote tallies). Settlement occurs within days of event completion. Winners charged 10% on profits plus 5% withdrawal fee = 15% total. Using example above: $52 profit minus 10% = $46.80, minus 5% withdrawal = $44.46 net profit.
PredictIt Fee Structure: The 15% Reality
Fee Breakdown
Profit Fee: 10% on net winnings per market
Withdrawal Fee: 5% on withdrawn amount
Deposit Fee: Varies by method (credit card ~2.5%, bank transfer free)
Total: Approximately 15% on profitable positions
Real Cost Impact
$100 Winning Trade:
- Gross profit: $50
- 10% profit fee: -$5
- Subtotal: $45
- 5% withdrawal: -$2.25
- Net profit: $42.75 (versus $50 gross = 15% total fee)
Comparison:
- PredictIt: Keep $42.75 of $50 profit (85%)
- Polymarket: Keep $49.00 of $50 profit (98%)
- Kalshi (maker): Keep $50.00 of $50 profit (100%)
- Kalshi (taker): Keep $49.50 of $50 profit (99%)
This 15% fee burden significantly impacts profitability. For active traders, fees compound dramatically over dozens of trades.
Platform Features
Market Variety: Approximately 180 active political markets with limited expansion to other categories. Strongest coverage of US politics—presidential, congressional, state-level, and policy markets.
Order Types: Market orders (instant) and limit orders (set price). No stop-loss or advanced orders.
Mobile: iOS app only (no Android). Basic functionality but less polished than Polymarket or Kalshi mobile experiences.
Portfolio Tracking: Simple dashboard showing positions, P&L, and trade history. Export available for tax reporting.
Educational Resources: Academic focus means extensive market methodology explanations, resolution criteria transparency, and historical data access for research.
API: No public API (unlike Polymarket and Kalshi), limiting automated trading and data analysis.
Customer Support: Email support with academic institution backing. Response times slower than Kalshi but available.
Pros & Cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| ✅ Fully Regulated (Sept 2025): CFTC DCM/DCO status provides legal certainty. | ❌ 15% Total Fees: Highest in industry, drastically eating profits compared to competitors. |
| ✅ Political Market Depth: Best coverage of niche political events and state-level races. | ❌ Limited Market Variety: 180 markets versus 1,200+ (Polymarket) or 3,500+ (Kalshi). |
| ✅ Academic Credibility: Victoria University backing and research focus provide data integrity. | ❌ Lower Liquidity: Smaller volume means wider spreads on many markets. |
| ✅ Simple Interface: Easy to understand for beginners. | ❌ No Android App: iOS-only mobile limits accessibility. |
| ✅ Historical Data: Extensive archives for research and backtesting. | ❌ No Public API: Prevents automated trading and custom analytics. |
| ✅ Raised Limits: $3,500 per contract (from $850) allows meaningful positions. | ❌ Politics-Heavy: Limited non-political markets compared to competitors. |
Best For / Not For
Best For: Political junkies focused exclusively on elections, casual traders with small positions (<$500), academic researchers needing historical data, beginners wanting simplest interface.
Not For: Active traders (fees compound quickly), high-volume positions (liquidity and fees problematic), non-political market interest, mobile Android users, algorithmic traders (no API).
PredictIt vs Polymarket vs Kalshi
| Feature | PredictIt | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC DCM/DCO (2025) | CFTC approved (2025) | CFTC DCM (2020) |
| Fees | 15% total | 2% profits | 0% maker |
| Position Limit | $3,500 | Unlimited | Unlimited |
| Markets | ~180 | 1,200+ | 3,500+ |
| Focus | Politics | All categories | All categories |
| Mobile | iOS only | iOS + Android | iOS + Android |
| API | No | Yes (free) | Yes (free) |
| Liquidity | Low | Highest | High |
| Best For | Political research | Crypto traders | US compliance |
When to Choose PredictIt:
- You focus exclusively on US political markets
- You’re casual trader with positions under $1,000
- You want simplest possible interface
- You’re conducting academic research needing historical data
When to Choose Competitors:
- For lower fees: Polymarket (2%) or Kalshi (0% maker)
- For higher liquidity: Polymarket
- For market variety: Polymarket (1,200+) or Kalshi (3,500+)
- For mobile trading: Polymarket or Kalshi (both iOS + Android)
- For API access: Polymarket or Kalshi
Conclusion
PredictIt transformed from limited academic platform to fully regulated exchange in 2025, with CFTC approval and $3,500 position limits representing major progress. However, 15% total fees remain the industry’s highest, small market selection (180 vs competitors’ thousands), and lower liquidity limit PredictIt’s appeal to niche use cases.
The platform excels for political market enthusiasts and academic researchers but struggles to compete with Polymarket’s low fees and vast liquidity or Kalshi’s zero-fee maker orders and institutional tools. For casual political betting under $1,000, PredictIt’s simplicity may justify the fee premium. For serious traders, the 15% fee burden makes other platforms more attractive.
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