The 2025 F1 season comes down to one final race this Sunday. And after digging into the numbers, I think the prediction market has it wrong.
Let me break down why I believe Lando Norris at 73 cents on Polymarket’s F1 Drivers Champion market is underpriced—and potentially the best entry point you’ll find before Abu Dhabi.
Where Things Stand
Here’s the situation heading into the finale:
| Driver | Points | Gap to Leader | Polymarket Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | 408 | — | 73¢ |
| Max Verstappen | 396 | -12 | 22.5¢ |
| Oscar Piastri | 392 | -16 | 5.8¢ |
That’s it. Just three drivers still in the fight. Everyone else is mathematically eliminated.
With only 25 points up for grabs (race win, no sprint this weekend), the math is pretty straightforward.
What Each Driver Needs
Norris has the simplest path. Finish on the podium—P1, P2, or P3—and he’s champion. Done. Doesn’t matter what Verstappen or Piastri do.
Even if he finishes P4 or P5, he still wins unless Verstappen takes the race victory.
Verstappen needs a specific combo: win the race AND have Norris finish P4 or worse. That’s his only path. Anything less and Norris takes the title.
Piastri needs a miracle. He has to win, Norris has to finish P6 or worse, AND Verstappen can’t finish higher than P2. Three things all going his way at once. Not impossible, but close to it.
Why I Think 73¢ Is Too Low
Here’s where it gets interesting.
The market is basically saying Norris has a 27% chance of losing this championship. That means a 27% chance he fails to podium AND Verstappen wins.
I don’t buy it.
McLaren has been the fastest car for most of this season. Norris has finished on the podium in 17 of 23 races. He’s only had 2 DNFs all year. At Yas Marina specifically, the pole-sitter has won 10 consecutive races—frontrunners rarely fall outside the top 3 without something going seriously wrong.
When I run the numbers using traditional bookmaker odds for the race winner and factor in realistic finishing distributions, I get Norris around 80-85% to win the championship.
That’s a gap of 7-12 percentage points from where Polymarket has him.
So Why Is He Trading This Low?
One word: Qatar.
Last weekend, McLaren’s strategy team made a brutal error. They kept Norris and Piastri out during a Safety Car while everyone else pitted. Verstappen jumped both McLarens and won the race. Norris’s lead went from 22 points to 12.
Before Qatar, Norris was trading around 76¢. The selloff to 73¢ reflects the market freaking out about McLaren’s decision-making under pressure.
I get it. That was painful to watch. But one strategy mistake doesn’t change the fundamental math. Norris still only needs P3. McLaren still has the faster car. And the team has delivered 7 wins each to Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri this season—they know how to execute at the front.
The market is overweighting recency bias here.
The Value Play
If my estimate of ~82% true probability is right, buying Norris at 73¢ gives you roughly a 12% edge over the market.
For every dollar you risk, you’re getting positive expected value of around 9 cents. In prediction market terms, that’s a solid edge.
The main risks? McLaren reliability (mechanical failure) or another strategy disaster. But honestly, those tail events are already baked into a 73% price. The market just seems to be pricing in too much disaster risk.
What About the Others?
Verstappen at 22.5¢ looks roughly fair to me. Maybe slightly overpriced. Yes, he’s won 4 of the last 5 Abu Dhabi races and he’s incredible under pressure. But the math requires two things to go right for him, not just one.
Piastri at 5.8¢ is actually overpriced in my view. His path requires three low-probability events happening simultaneously. I calculate his real odds closer to 2-3%. If you want a safe play, buying NO on Piastri at 94.2¢ offers a small but near-certain return.
My Take
Look, anything can happen in F1. We’ve seen championship leads evaporate in final races before. But the numbers here are pretty clear.
A driver with a 12-point lead who only needs a podium finish in a car that’s been the class of the field should be priced above 80%. The Qatar overreaction has created what I think is genuine value.
If you’re looking for an entry point on this market, Norris at 73¢ is where I’d put my money.
The race is Sunday, December 7th. We’ll know soon enough.
Want to follow the championship scenarios in detail? Formula1.com has a full breakdown of exactly what each driver needs.
Polymarket data from their F1 Drivers Champion market. Current standings via Crash.net.