Polymarket has become the world’s largest prediction market platform, processing over $9 billion in cumulative 2024 volume more than all competitors combined. With 314,500 active traders in December 2024 and groundbreaking news in November 2025 (CFTC approval and US market return), Polymarket now dominates the prediction market landscape. This comprehensive guide walks through how Polymarket works, how to get started, complete fee analysis, platform features, and honest pros/cons comparison with Kalshi and PredictIt.
Whether you’re a crypto native or new to prediction markets, this objective review based on real platform testing gives you everything needed to decide if Polymarket is right for your trading strategy.
Table of Contents
- What Is Polymarket? Platform Overview
- How Polymarket Works: From Signup to First Trade
- Polymarket Fees: Complete Cost Breakdown
- Key Features & Platform Capabilities
- Polymarket Pros & Cons: Honest Assessment
- Polymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt: Direct Comparison
- Getting Started: Step-by-Step Checklist
- FAQ: Polymarket Questions Answered
- Is Polymarket Right for You? Final Verdict
What Is Polymarket? Platform Overview
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market exchange where users trade binary outcome contracts on real-world events using USDC stablecoin. Built on Polygon blockchain (Ethereum Layer 2), the platform provides low fees ($0.01 gas per transaction) and fast settlement while maintaining complete transparency through on-chain transactions. Unlike traditional betting platforms with house edges, Polymarket operates peer-to-peer traders buy and sell contracts with each other, and market prices reflect collective probability assessments.
The platform’s scale is unprecedented in prediction markets. Polymarket closed 2024 with $9 billion in cumulative volume and peaked at 314,500 active traders in December six times larger than Kalshi by volume and fifty times larger than PredictIt. The 2024 presidential election alone generated $3.3 billion in trading volume on Polymarket, making it the most liquid political market in history. This massive liquidity creates tight bid-ask spreads (1-2% on popular markets) and allows traders to enter and exit large positions without significant price impact.
Key Differentiators
Decentralization: Smart contracts handle all trades automatically with no central authority able to freeze accounts or seize funds. All code is open-source and auditable. Your wallet = your account; you control private keys and assets completely.
USDC-Based Trading: All positions denominated in USDC stablecoin eliminates cryptocurrency volatility concerns. Buy $100 worth of shares, and you’re risking $100 in stable value not exposed to Bitcoin or Ethereum price swings.
Global and US Access: Major development in November 2025: Polymarket acquired QCEX (CFTC-licensed exchange) for $112 million and received CFTC approval, officially reopening to US users on November 12, 2025 in beta mode. Full US launch expected late November 2025. Previously banned since the 2022 CFTC settlement, Polymarket is now the only decentralized prediction market with US regulatory approval.
Lowest Fees: 2% on net profits only no deposit fees, no withdrawal fees, no trading fees. PredictIt charges 15% total (10% profit + 5% withdrawal). This fee advantage compounds significantly for active traders.
Highest Liquidity: Top 20 markets each exceed $5 million weekly volume. Major political markets like the 2028 presidential race show $40-50 million volume, enabling institutional-scale trading without slippage.
Community-Driven Markets: Users propose new markets through community governance. If an event becomes newsworthy, expect a Polymarket within hours. The platform hosted over 1,200 active markets in December 2024 across politics, crypto, sports, entertainment, and science.
Who Uses Polymarket
Polymarket’s user base spans crypto-native traders valuing decentralization, professional traders seeking maximum liquidity and low fees, international users (though now US-accessible), arbitrage traders comparing odds across platforms, and media/researchers tracking prediction market sentiment. Bloomberg, CNBC, and major news outlets regularly cite Polymarket odds as probability indicators for major events. During the 2024 election, Polymarket odds became the primary real-time forecast cited by financial media, outpacing traditional polling aggregators.
How Polymarket Works: From Signup to First Trade
Getting started on Polymarket requires understanding crypto wallet basics but is straightforward with the right guidance.
Step 1: Wallet Setup (5 minutes)
Connect a Web3 wallet MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, WalletConnect, or Rainbow all work seamlessly. No email, password, or KYC required; your wallet serves as your identity and account. For crypto newcomers: Install MetaMask as browser extension or mobile app (takes 5 minutes), create new wallet and securely save the recovery phrase offline (write on paper, store safely this is critical), then connect wallet to polymarket.com.
The non-custodial model means you control funds completely, but you’re also responsible for security. Lose your recovery phrase, and funds are permanently inaccessible no customer support can recover them. This trade-off (control vs. responsibility) is fundamental to decentralized platforms.
Step 2: Fund with USDC (10-15 minutes)
Purchase USDC on any major exchange (Coinbase, Kraken, Binance) or directly through MetaMask’s buy crypto feature. Bridge USDC to Polygon network using Polygon Bridge or MetaMask’s built-in bridge (costs ~$1-2 in fees). Some wallets now offer direct USDC purchase on Polygon, skipping the bridge step entirely. Minimum: No platform minimum, but start with $50-100 for meaningful position sizes. Gas fees on Polygon are negligible (~$0.01 per transaction), far cheaper than Ethereum mainnet.
Timeline: First-time users typically spend 10-15 minutes from USDC purchase to ready-to-trade. Experienced crypto users complete this in under 5 minutes.
Step 3: Browse Markets
Polymarket’s homepage displays trending markets and volume leaders. Category filters include Politics, Crypto, Sports, Science, and Pop Culture. Search function finds specific events. Each market shows current odds (YES/NO prices), 24-hour volume, resolution date, and resolution source (how outcome will be determined). Click any market for detailed view: historical price chart, order book (all current bids/asks), community comments, and resolution criteria.
The comments section provides crowdsourced insights. Before trading, read resolution criteria carefully this defines exactly how the market resolves and prevents disputes.
Step 4: Place Your First Trade
Let’s walk through a real example. Market: “Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?” currently shows YES at $0.38 (38% implied probability). You believe Bitcoin has a 50% chance, so the market is underpricing this outcome. Click “Buy YES” and enter amount: Buy 100 shares at $0.38 = $52 investment (includes slight spread). Review: If YES wins, receive $100 (profit $48). If NO wins, lose $52. Confirm transaction in wallet (gas fee ~$0.01), and shares appear instantly in your portfolio.
You can sell anytime before resolution at current market price. If odds move to $0.50 tomorrow, sell your 100 shares for $50 locking in $-2 loss. If odds move to $0.60, sell for $60 locking in $8 profit without waiting for December 31 resolution.
Step 5: Resolution & Payout
When the event occurs, UMA oracles (automated data sources) determine the outcome based on predefined criteria. Bitcoin markets use CoinMarketCap API prices. Political markets wait for official certifications. Sports markets use ESPN or official league data. Winning shares automatically paid $1.00 per share. Losing shares become worthless. Your Bitcoin example: 100 YES shares resolve to $100 if BTC hits $150K (profit $48 minus 2% fee = $47.04 net), or $0 if BTC stays below $150K (loss $52, no fees on losses).
Payouts are instant funds appear in wallet immediately upon resolution. Withdraw USDC anytime by bridging back to Ethereum mainnet or sending to exchange for conversion to USD.
Polymarket Fees: Complete Cost Breakdown
Understanding total trading costs is essential for profitability assessment.
Official Fee Structure
Trading Fee: 0%
Profit Fee: 2% on net winnings only
Deposit Fee: Relayer fee of $3 + network cost OR 0.3% of deposit amount (whichever is higher)
Withdrawal Fee: 0% (only network/bridge fees)
Gas Fees: ~$0.01 per transaction on Polygon
Real Cost Examples
Winning Trade:
- Buy 100 shares at $0.40 = $40 investment
- Market resolves YES, receive $100
- Gross profit: $60
- Fee: 2% × $60 = $1.20
- Net profit: $58.80 (147% return on $40)
Losing Trade:
- Buy 100 shares at $0.40 = $40 investment
- Market resolves NO, receive $0
- Loss: $40
- Fee: $0 (fees only on profits)
Early Exit (Profit):
- Buy at $0.40, sell at $0.55 before resolution
- Profit: $15 on 100 shares
- Fee: 2% × $15 = $0.30
- Net profit: $14.70
Hidden Costs to Consider
Bid-ask spread varies by market liquid markets show 1-2% spreads, thin markets can exceed 5-10%. USDC purchase fees on exchanges typically 1-2%. Polygon bridge fees around $1-2 one-time cost. These costs matter for small positions but become negligible for $1,000+ trading.
Fee Comparison: Polymarket vs Competitors
Polymarket’s 2% profit fee is industry-leading. Win $1,000 on Polymarket = $980 after fees. Same $1,000 win on PredictIt = $850 after 15% total fees. Over 10 winning trades of $1,000 each, Polymarket saves $1,300 in fees versus PredictIt. For active traders, this difference compounds dramatically. Kalshi technically charges 0% trading fees but earns revenue from order flow, and spreads on Kalshi can be wider than Polymarket on comparable markets, offsetting the “zero fee” advantage.
Key Features & Platform Capabilities
Polymarket’s feature set has expanded significantly through 2024-2025.
Market Variety
1,200+ active markets in December 2024 span every major category. Politics: Presidential races, primaries, Senate/House control, international elections (France, UK, Germany), policy outcomes. Crypto: Bitcoin/Ethereum price predictions, DeFi protocol milestones, NFT trends, regulation outcomes. Sports: Super Bowl, NBA Finals, World Series, international competitions, player prop bets. Science & Technology: SpaceX launches, AI breakthroughs, climate events, FDA approvals. Entertainment: Oscars, Grammys, streaming show renewals, celebrity news.
Markets appear rapidly after events become newsworthy. When major news breaks, expect Polymarket contract within hours. Community governance allows users to propose new markets if enough interest exists, the platform lists it.
Trading Tools
Order Types: Market orders (instant execution) and limit orders (set your price, wait for fill).
Portfolio Dashboard: Track all positions, P&L by market, total win rate, complete trade history with timestamps and prices.
Price Charts: Historical data with 1-hour, 24-hour, 7-day, 30-day, and all-time views. Identify trends and entry points.
Order Book: Full transparency into market depth see all bids and asks at each price level before placing trades.
Market Comments: Community discussion for each market provides crowdsourced insights and breaking information.
API Access: Free public API for automated trading, custom dashboards, historical data analysis. Learn about prediction market APIs.
Mobile: Native iOS and Android apps launched July 2025 with real-time updates, push notifications, Trump dashboard, trend page showcasing live events, and intuitive trading interface.
Missing features (on roadmap): Stop-loss orders, advanced charting tools, automated strategy backtesting.
Liquidity & Market Depth
Top 20 markets show $5+ million weekly volume each. The 2028 presidential election market already exceeds $40 million despite being years away. This liquidity enables $10,000+ position trades without significant slippage. Market makers provide continuous liquidity and can earn fees for doing so. Tight spreads on popular markets (1-2%) mean efficient entry and exit. However, niche markets under $50,000 volume show 5-10% spreads avoid unless you have specific informational edge.
Resolution & Oracles
UMA (Universal Market Access) protocol handles outcome determination. Data sources include: APIs (CoinMarketCap for crypto, weather.gov for climate, official election results), official announcements (Fed statements, corporate earnings), and manual verification with photographic/video evidence for subjective events.
Resolution timeline: Usually 24-48 hours after event, though political markets can take weeks waiting for official certification. Dispute process: If resolution is contested, UMA token holders vote on correct outcome. This happens rarely (~0.1% of markets) due to clear resolution criteria. All resolution sources are listed on each market before trading begins verify you agree with resolution method before committing capital.
Polymarket Pros & Cons: Honest Assessment
Pros
✓ Highest Liquidity Globally: $9B annual volume in 2024, $40M+ on major single markets. Enter and exit large positions without moving prices critical for serious traders.
✓ Lowest Fees in Industry: 2% on profits only. Keep 98% of winnings. No deposit, withdrawal, or trading fees beyond network costs.
✓ Maximum Market Variety: 1,200+ markets across all categories. If it’s newsworthy, there’s likely a market.
✓ Now Legal for US Users: November 2025 CFTC approval and QCEX acquisition resolved prior regulatory issues. US citizens can trade legally for the first time since 2022.
✓ Decentralized & Non-Custodial: You control funds. No platform can freeze accounts or seize assets. Open-source smart contracts provide transparency.
✓ Best for Crypto Users: If you already hold crypto, Polymarket is seamless instant deposits, no bank transfers, immediate settlement.
✓ Complete Transparency: All trades on-chain, resolution sources public, order books visible. No hidden activity.
✓ Active Community: Comments section provides crowdsourced insights superior to isolated research. Thousands of informed traders share analysis.
✓ Mobile Apps Live: Native iOS/Android apps (launched July 2025) offer full functionality with push notifications and real-time updates.
Cons
- Crypto Knowledge Required: Must understand wallets, USDC, blockchain basics. Learning curve for non-crypto users, though mobile apps simplify significantly.
- No Customer Support: Decentralized = no support team. Lose wallet access, funds are gone forever. Self-custody responsibility is absolute.
- Wallet Security Burden: You’re responsible for security. Phishing attacks common in crypto. One mistake can mean total loss. Write recovery phrase offline, never share it, verify all websites.
- Limited Fiat On-Ramps: Must buy USDC separately and bridge to Polygon. Extra steps versus Kalshi’s direct bank deposits. However, many wallets now offer one-click USDC purchase on Polygon.
- Smaller Markets Lack Liquidity: Niche markets under $50K volume have 5-10% spreads, making them expensive to trade. Stick to markets over $100K weekly volume.
- Wash Trading Concerns: A Columbia University study found up to 25-60% of volume on some Polymarket markets may be wash trading (artificial volume from coordinated buy/sell). High-profile markets are likely clean, but smaller markets warrant skepticism.
Best For / Not Best For
Best For:
- Crypto-experienced traders comfortable with wallets
- US users wanting highest-liquidity regulated option (now that CFTC approved)
- High-volume traders needing tight spreads
- Users valuing decentralization and transparency
- Arbitrage traders comparing cross-platform odds
Not Best For:
- Complete crypto beginners (consider Kalshi for simpler USD onboarding)
- Users requiring customer support
- Those unwilling to manage wallet security
- Traders wanting advanced features like stop-losses (not yet available)
Polymarket vs Kalshi vs PredictIt: Direct Comparison
Which platform wins depends on your priorities.
| Category | Polymarket | Kalshi | PredictIt | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | $9B total 2024 | ~$3-4B estimated 2024 | ~$500M total 2024 | Polymarket |
| Fees | 2% on profits | 0% trading | 15% total | Kalshi/Polymarket |
| Liquidity | Highest | High | Low | Polymarket |
| US Legal | ✓ (Nov 2025) | ✓ CFTC | ✓ Exemption | Tie |
| Ease of Use | Moderate | Easy | Easy | Kalshi |
| Market Variety | 1,200+ | ~3,500 | ~180 | Kalshi |
| Mobile App | ✓ Live | ✓ Live | iOS only | Tie |
| API | ✓ Free | ✓ Free | ✗ | Tie |
| Max Position | Unlimited | Unlimited | $850/market | Polymarket |
| Best For | Crypto users, liquidity | US ease of use | Small politics bets |
When to Choose Polymarket:
- You’re comfortable with crypto wallets and USDC
- You want maximum liquidity and tightest spreads
- You’re trading large positions (>$1,000)
- You value decentralization and on-chain transparency
- You’re doing arbitrage trading across platforms
- You need the widest selection of crypto/entertainment markets
When to Choose Kalshi Instead:
- You prefer USD and bank transfers over crypto
- You want simpler onboarding (no wallet setup)
- You need customer support availability
- You focus on macro/finance markets (Kalshi’s specialty)
- You want advanced tools (stop-loss orders, TradingView charts)
When to Choose PredictIt Instead:
- You’re casual bettor with positions under $850
- You only trade politics
- You want absolute simplest experience
- You’re okay paying 15% fees for convenience
Getting Started: Step-by-Step Checklist
1. Set Up Wallet (5 minutes)
- [ ] Download MetaMask (browser or mobile)
- [ ] Create wallet, save recovery phrase offline
- [ ] Secure wallet with strong password
2. Buy USDC (10 minutes)
- [ ] Sign up for Coinbase, Kraken, or use MetaMask buy feature
- [ ] Complete any required verification
- [ ] Buy USDC (start with $50-100)
3. Bridge to Polygon (5 minutes)
- [ ] Use Polygon Bridge or MetaMask bridge
- [ ] Transfer USDC to Polygon network
- [ ] Expect ~$1-2 bridge fee
4. Connect to Polymarket
- [ ] Visit polymarket.com
- [ ] Click “Connect Wallet”
- [ ] Approve connection in wallet
5. Place First Trade (2 minutes)
- [ ] Browse markets, find interesting event
- [ ] Review odds, volume, resolution source
- [ ] Start small ($10-25 first trade)
- [ ] Click Buy YES or NO, confirm in wallet
6. Best Practices:
- Trade only high-volume markets ($100K+ weekly) while learning
- Set personal limits (never risk more than you can afford to lose)
- Research resolution sources before committing
- Read comments for crowdsourced insights
- Track performance in portfolio dashboard
Common Mistakes to Avoid:
- Trading thin markets with wide spreads
- Not verifying resolution source before trading
- Losing wallet recovery phrase
- Ignoring bid-ask spread costs
- Trading without understanding the underlying event
FAQ: Polymarket Questions Answered
Is Polymarket legal in the US now?
Yes. As of November 12, 2025, Polymarket officially reopened to US users after acquiring QCEX (CFTC-licensed exchange) and receiving CFTC approval. Previously, from 2022-2025, US access was prohibited following a CFTC settlement. The November 2025 approval makes Polymarket the only decentralized prediction market fully legal for US residents. Learn more about prediction market legality.
How do I withdraw winnings from Polymarket?
Your funds stay in your wallet (non-custodial). To cash out: (1) USDC is already in your wallet after trades settle, (2) Bridge USDC back to Ethereum mainnet if preferred (or keep on Polygon), (3) Send USDC to exchange like Coinbase or Kraken, (4) Sell USDC for USD, (5) Withdraw to bank. Total time: 15-30 minutes.
What happens if I lose my wallet recovery phrase?
Funds are permanently lost. Polymarket is non-custodial no company can recover your account. This is both the benefit (you own funds) and the risk (you’re responsible). Write recovery phrase on paper, store offline in secure location. Never share it, never store digitally, never take screenshots.
Can I trade on mobile?
Yes. Native iOS and Android apps launched July 2025 with full trading functionality. Use MetaMask mobile app to connect wallet seamlessly. Mobile experience is excellent with real-time updates, push notifications, and intuitive interface.
How are markets resolved? Can I dispute outcomes?
UMA protocol handles resolution via oracles (automated data sources). If disputed, UMA token holders vote on correct outcome. Disputes are rare (~0.1%). Most resolve within 24-48 hours of event completion. Check resolution source before trading it’s listed on every market page.
What’s the minimum trade amount?
No platform minimum. Practical minimum: ~$10 due to bid-ask spreads and desire for meaningful positions. Gas fees are negligible (~$0.01) so don’t materially impact small trades. Recommend starting with $50-100 across multiple markets.
Are there position limits?
No limits (unlike PredictIt’s $850 cap). Trade unlimited size if market liquidity supports it. Major markets with $40M+ volume easily accommodate $10,000+ positions without slippage. This makes Polymarket suitable for institutional-scale trading.
How do fees compare to stock trading?
Polymarket’s 2% on profits is comparable to or better than most investment vehicles. Stock brokers charge $0-5 per trade plus SEC fees (~$26 per million traded). Polymarket is similar to low-cost stock trading and dramatically better than traditional sports betting (10-15% house edge). For performance-based fees, 2% is exceptionally reasonable.
Is Polymarket Right for You? Final Verdict
Polymarket dominates prediction markets with $9 billion in 2024 volume, 314,500 active traders, 1,200+ markets, and industry-low 2% fees. November 2025’s CFTC approval and US market return resolved prior regulatory concerns, making Polymarket now fully legal for US residents. For crypto-experienced traders valuing liquidity, market variety, and low fees, Polymarket is the clear choice. The mobile app (launched July 2025) significantly improves accessibility for users previously deterred by web-only interface.
However, crypto learning curve and wallet security responsibilities limit accessibility. US beginners preferring simple USD deposits and customer support should consider Kalshi as a regulatory-focused alternative. The self-custody model requires comfort with blockchain technology and absolute responsibility for funds security.
Choose Polymarket if: High-volume needs, crypto-comfortable, value decentralization, want maximum market selection, seek lowest fees, need mobile trading.
Choose Kalshi if: US-based wanting easiest onboarding, prefer USD, need support, focus on macro/finance.
Choose PredictIt if: Casual politics betting under $850, prioritize simplicity over fees.
Ready to explore Polymarket? Set up MetaMask wallet, buy USDC, and start with $25-50 on high-volume markets. Track your first 10 trades to understand platform dynamics before scaling up. Compare all platforms in our comprehensive platform comparison. Learn advanced techniques in our trading strategies guide or explore live markets for current opportunities. For beginner fundamentals, see how to start prediction market trading.