Quick Picks: Best For Different Needs
🥇 Best Overall: Polymarket
Polymarket leads the industry with the highest liquidity and the most markets to choose from.
Why it wins:
- Zero trading fees on all markets
- Largest daily volume ($100M+)
- 1,000+ active markets on politics, sports, crypto, and current events
- Fast, mobile-friendly interface
Perfect for: Serious traders who want the best prices and deepest liquidity.
- 0% trading fees
- Highest liquidity
- CFTC approved for U.S.
🏛️ Best Regulated: Kalshi
Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market in the United States. If you want legal certainty and traditional banking, this is your choice.
Why it stands out:
- Fully regulated by the US government (CFTC approved)
- Trade with US dollars, not crypto
- Direct bank account integration
- Institutional-grade security
Perfect for: US traders who prioritize regulation and prefer traditional finance over crypto.
- CFTC regulated
- Trade with USD (no crypto)
- $1 minimum deposit
🚀 Best for Crypto Users: Polymarket
If you’re already using crypto and want the freedom of decentralized trading, Polymarket is built for you.
Why crypto users love it:
- Built on Polygon blockchain (low fees, fast transactions)
- Trade with USDC stablecoin
- No geographic restrictions (with VPN)
- Transparent, on-chain settlement
Perfect for: Crypto natives who value decentralization and want to keep their funds in USDC.
- 0% trading fees
- Highest liquidity
- CFTC approved for U.S.
How to Choose the Right Prediction Market Site
Not all platforms are the same. Here’s what to consider:
✅ Regulation
Do you need CFTC approval? Kalshi is the only regulated option in the US. Others operate offshore or as sweepstakes platforms.
✅ Payment Methods
- Crypto only: Polymarket (USDC required)
- USD only: Kalshi (bank account needed)
- Both: Some platforms accept credit cards and crypto
✅ Fees
Trading fees range from 0% to 7%. Polymarket charges nothing. Kalshi takes 1-7% depending on the market. Check withdrawal fees too.
✅ Market Variety
Want to trade on politics? Sports? Crypto prices? Make sure your platform offers the markets you care about.
✅ Liquidity
Can you buy and sell quickly without moving the price? Higher volume = better prices. Polymarket and Kalshi lead here.
✅ User Experience
Test the mobile app or website. Is it easy to find markets? Can you place bets quickly? Good UX matters when markets move fast.
Prediction Market Platforms Compared
| Feature | Polymarket | Kalshi | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | Offshore | ✅ CFTC | Varies |
| Min Deposit | $10 | $25 | $1-$50 |
| Crypto Required | ✅ Yes (USDC) | ❌ No | Mixed |
| Trading Fees | 0% | 1-7% | 0-10% |
| Withdrawal Fees | Gas fees only | Free (ACH) | Varies |
| Mobile App | ✅ | ✅ | Some |
| Market Volume | Highest | High | Lower |
| US Accessible | ⚠️ Restricted | ✅ Yes | Varies |
*Accurate as of December 2025
Are Prediction Markets Legal?
Yes, prediction markets are legal in the United States, but the rules vary by platform.
CFTC-Regulated Markets (Kalshi):
Fully legal and regulated like commodity futures. Only available to US residents. You must be 18+ and pass ID verification.
Offshore Markets (Polymarket):
Legal to use but not regulated by US authorities. Polymarket restricts US IP addresses, though some users access via VPN (use at your own risk).
State Restrictions:
Some states ban online betting platforms. Check your local laws. Regulated platforms like Kalshi clearly list where they operate.
Tax Implications:
Profits are taxable as capital gains. Keep records of your trades. CFTC-regulated platforms report to the IRS automatically.
Bottom line: Stick to regulated platforms if you want zero legal risk. Offshore platforms are popular but operate in a gray area.
How Prediction Markets Work
Never used a prediction market? Here’s the simple 3-step process:
1. Choose an Event
Browse markets on politics (“Will X win the election?”), sports (“Will Y win the championship?”), or any real-world event.
2. Buy Shares
Each market has “Yes” and “No” shares. If you think something will happen, buy “Yes” shares. If you think it won’t, buy “No” shares. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99.
Example: “Will it rain tomorrow?” is trading at 70¢ for Yes. If you buy 100 Yes shares for $70 and it rains, you get $100 (profit: $30). If it doesn’t rain, you lose your $70.
3. Profit or Learn
When the event resolves, winning shares pay $1.00. Losing shares pay $0.00. You can also sell before the event ends if the price moves in your favor.
Why prices change: As new information comes in (polls, news, expert opinions), people buy and sell, moving the price. The current price shows the crowd’s prediction probability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the minimum deposit?
Most platforms require $10-$25 to start. Polymarket needs $10 in USDC. Kalshi asks for $25 via bank transfer. Some free platforms like Manifold Markets let you start with play money.
Bottom line: You can start small on any platform.
Can I withdraw my money anytime?
Yes, but timing varies by platform.
Crypto platforms (Polymarket): Instant withdrawals to your wallet, but you pay blockchain gas fees (usually $1-$5).
Regulated platforms (Kalshi): ACH bank transfers take 3-5 business days. No fees.
You can only withdraw settled funds. Active positions must be sold or resolved first.
Are prediction markets like gambling?
Not exactly. Here’s the difference:
Gambling: The house sets odds and always has an edge. You’re betting against the casino.
Prediction markets: You’re trading with other users. Prices reflect collective knowledge, not house odds. Many users trade to hedge risk or gain information, not just to gamble.
That said, you can lose money if you’re wrong. Treat it like investing: only risk what you can afford to lose.
What markets can I trade?
Common categories include:
- Politics: Elections, policy decisions, approval ratings
- Sports: Game outcomes, championships, player performance
- Crypto: Bitcoin price levels, altcoin launches, DeFi events
- Economics: Inflation rates, Fed decisions, unemployment numbers
- Entertainment: Oscar winners, box office records, streaming stats
- Current Events: News outcomes, scientific discoveries, weather
Platform differences: Polymarket has the most variety (1,000+ markets). Kalshi focuses on regulated events. Smaller platforms have niche markets.
How accurate are prediction markets?
Very accurate, often better than expert forecasts.
Why they work: When people have money at risk, they share real information. The price aggregates knowledge from thousands of traders.
Track record examples:
- Predicted the 2020 US election within 2% of actual results
- Forecasted Brexit outcome more accurately than polls
- Called the 2022 World Cup winner weeks in advance
Not perfect: Surprise events (black swans) can still happen. Markets show probability, not certainty.
Do I need cryptocurrency?
Depends on the platform.
Yes (Crypto Required):
- Polymarket – USDC only
- Some DeFi platforms – ETH or other tokens
No (USD Accepted):
- Kalshi – Bank account or debit card
- Some apps – Credit card deposits
Hybrid Options:
- A few platforms accept both
New to crypto? Start with a USD platform like Kalshi. If you’re comfortable with crypto, Polymarket offers more markets and lower fees.
Do I pay taxes on winnings?
Yes, in most countries including the US.
US Tax Rules:
- Profits are capital gains (short-term if held <1 year)
- Report all trades, even if the platform doesn’t send you a 1099
- CFTC-regulated platforms report to the IRS automatically
- Offshore platforms usually don’t report, but you’re still legally required to
Keep records: Track your deposits, trades, and withdrawals. Use the platform’s export feature or a crypto tax tool.
Consult a tax pro if you have significant winnings. Rules vary by country and situation.
Can I sell my shares before the event ends?
Yes! This is one of the best features of prediction markets.
How it works: If you bought Yes shares at 40¢ and the price moves to 70¢, you can sell and lock in a 75% profit without waiting for the event to resolve.
Why you might sell early:
- Take profits if the price moved your way
- Cut losses if new information hurts your position
- Free up money for other markets
- Reduce risk before a big announcement
Liquidity matters: High-volume markets let you sell instantly. Low-volume markets might take time to fill your order.
Our Rating Methodology
We test every platform to give you honest, unbiased recommendations. Here’s how we evaluate:
🔒 Security & Trust (30%)
- Regulatory status and legal compliance
- Track record (hacks, scams, disputes)
- Fund security (cold storage, insurance)
- Company transparency and reputation
💵 Fees & Costs (25%)
- Trading fees (maker/taker rates)
- Deposit and withdrawal fees
- Hidden costs (spread, gas fees)
- Value compared to competitors
📊 Market Variety (20%)
- Number of active markets
- Coverage of different categories (politics, sports, crypto, etc.)
- Market depth and liquidity
- Speed of new market creation
👤 User Experience (15%)
- Website and mobile app quality
- Speed and reliability
- Ease of deposits and withdrawals
- Customer support responsiveness
🏛️ Regulation (10%)
- Legal status in major jurisdictions
- Compliance with financial regulations
- Geographic restrictions
- Terms of service clarity
Our Process:
We create accounts, deposit real money, and place actual trades on each platform. We test customer support, measure withdrawal times, and track performance over months. Every rating is based on hands-on experience, not marketing claims.
Ready to Start Trading Predictions?
The best prediction market for you depends on your priorities:
- Want regulation and legal certainty? → Start with Kalshi
- Want the most markets and best prices? → Try Polymarket
- New to prediction markets? → Check our beginner’s guide
- Want to compare features side by side? → Use the table above
Next Steps:
- Pick a platform from our comparison
- Read the full review to understand fees and features
- Start with a small deposit ($10-$25)
- Test the platform with a few small trades
- Scale up as you learn
Disclaimer: Prediction markets involve risk. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. This content is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Always check local laws before using any platform.